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This article was written by John Brandon and originally appeared in mental_floss magazine.
We’ll spare you the far-future posturing and flying-car jokes, but the future looks bright. In fact, we’ve already made some pretty impressive headway. The 2008 Mercedes S-Class can change lanes on the highway automatically, and both the Toyota Prius and the Lexus LS-460 can self-park at the push of a button. But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what’s in the works. With eyes wide and mouths agape, mental_floss peeked under the curtain at the cars of the future. Here’s what we can tell you about what you’ll be driving in 2020.
1. Your Car Will Predict The Future
Self-parking cars are great and all, but there’s a big difference between features of convenience and the kinds of safety technologies on the horizon. We’re talking about cars that can see into the future and react on a dime—whether that means detecting a person crossing the street or swerving to avoid oncoming traffic.
There’s no doubt the artificial intelligence required to protect you from those dangers is incredibly sophisticated, but it’s becoming more widely available every day. Vehicles equipped with hundreds of sensors will be able to monitor their surroundings, both from a short-range perspective (to detect things like barriers and stop signs) and a long-range perspective (to detect things like a truck barreling toward you). But they won’t be working alone.
Cars of the future will also utilize video monitors located at intersections. Currently planned for many towns and cities across the United States, these monitors will feed data to your car over a wireless network. From as far as 30 miles away, they’ll be able to transmit video imagery right to your dashboard. So, if you didn’t see that pedestrian walking into the street, the video system would know where you were, know about the pedestrian, and warn you to pay attention. It’s similar to Google’s new Street View maps system. Already available in larger cities like San Francisco and New York, the application shows fluid, 360-degree video images of nearly every block in the area. And while it’s only accessible from computers now, similar real-time images will soon be available right on your dash.
Taking the concept one step further, engineers also plan to equip cars with computer processors that can analyze these kinds of video feeds to assess abnormalities in traffic. So rather than just warning you of an upcoming obstacle in the road, cars will use the data to deploy airbags at just the right location within the vehicle. Or, they could decide to take over the steering when needed. Basically a smarter version of the existing Electronic Stability Control feature (available on several luxury car models now), the cars will monitor weather and traffic, and adjust tire speeds to make sure you stay on the road and don’t flip the vehicle. How long ’til everyone on the block has one? The system will be required on all new U.S. cars for the 2012 model year, but you should expect to see it even sooner than that.
2. Your Car Will Talk To The Road – And The Road Will Talk Back
It’s one thing to have a car that senses other vehicles, but something else entirely to have the road itself know where your car is at all times. To make that possible, city governments and automakers are joining forces to launch new Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) systems. Using short-range wireless signals, vehicles will be able to communicate not only with each other, but with all the infrastructure on the road. Transportation agencies in cities across America currently have plans to install DSRC technology at major intersections and high-accident areas. In response, major auto manufacturers will offer DSRC support for their cars. The communication network will monitor where cars are traveling, as well as read traffic-light information and road-sign sensors. With both cars and roadways enabled, formerly unimaginable safety benefits will become a reality. For instance, ambulances will be able to trigger upcoming traffic lights to change from red to green.
But there are plans to go even further. According to DaimlerChrysler, old satellites (accurate to about 3 feet) could be replaced with much more powerful Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, which could pinpoint your vehicle to a few centimeters. And while there are only 30 active GPS satellites in space today, engineers hope to have as many as 50 in the future. The new system will be able to track weather conditions and suggest alternate routes. For example, you could avoid a tornado in Kansas or damaging hail in Fargo, or loop around Chicago traffic using real-time data that’s continually updated.
3. Your Car Will Take Itself Into The Shop For Maintenance
Having wireless networks set up along the roadways—such as those necessary for seeing images of upcoming intersections—translates to endless possibilities for cars and drivers in the future. Example: Imagine passing a maintenance station that remotely signals your in-car navigation system that it’s time for an oil change. Better yet, it could go ahead and wirelessly upgrade your car’s software modules or check the performance of its safety sensors.
Perhaps even more exciting are the possibilities for electric hybrids. Once electric cars outnumber gas-engine cars, satellite-based wireless power systems could recharge vehicles from space. How’s that possible? The satellites would gather solar energy from space and then transmit the power to a receiver on the vehicle via a wireless signal. It would work the same as a wireless computer network, except the signal would carry energy instead of data.
4. When You Drive Through McDonald’s, Your Car Will Be Debited, Not Your Visa
Microprocessors are already embedded into many parts of an automobile—from an engine’s control-valve timing system to the seat controls. So why not have a microprocessor that manages financial transactions? Several states already offer special debit cards that mount to your windshield as you pass through a toll, but those are primitive compared to what’s to come.
In the future, when you pull into the drive-thru at a fast food restaurant, a local Wi-Fi network will be able to communicate with your vehicle by way of an encrypted wireless signal. In other words, after you order your food, the car will automatically make the financial transaction. And the electronic signature? It’s likely that the navigational systems in your car will have expanded beyond route planning and safety warnings into something involving a signature pad that would allow you to type in a passcode (or use a fingerprint or eye retina scan) as an electronic signature. Once the infrastructure is in place, your car will become like a mini-ATM for drive-thru establishments. Of course, whether or not that’s a good thing for your budget remains to be seen.
5. Go Ahead, Take A Nap. Your Car Will Drive Itself.
Futuristic cars tricked out with their own ATMs and self-maintenance features sound nice, but for many engineers, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The real holy grail? A fully automated, driverless car.
Shining a big spotlight on such efforts is DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), a Department of Defense organization aimed at perfecting the robotic technology needed for safe, autonomous military vehicles. In 2005, Stanford robotics expert Sebastian Thrun (who we gushed over in our last issue on page 33) won the DARPA Grand Challenge with his autonomous car, Stanley. Although the competition is aimed at developing machinery to protect soldiers, Thrun believes the technology will reach civilians sooner than you might think. And driverless cars, he believes, could save thousands of lives each year.
In June 2007, Thrun’s new robotic roadster, Junior, completed several test runs in preparation for the DARPA Urban Challenge (scheduled for November 2007). Although Junior never went faster than 15 mph, it made a three-point U-turn and navigated through a four-way stop. That’s right; Thrun is getting close to achieving a fully automated, road-ready car.
Where could this lead? Well, a highway system for starters—say, from San Francisco to Los Angeles—for driverless vehicles only. Using a wireless signal, barriers on either side of the road could communicate with cars to keep them on track. And vehicles could simply use older cruise-control technology to maintain steady speeds. Conceivably, this would allow drivers to sleep through long stretches of highway—or at the very least read the morning paper and drink their coffee. Another advantage is that these routes could have less restrictive speed limits—likely well over 100 mph—which could redefine the morning commute for many Americans.
Comments (57)
Comment
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Hey, nice article but… the Prius cannot park itself… I wish it could… I own a 2008 package 6.
posted by Joseph Driscoll on 3-5-2008 at 6:51 pm
We’ll have cars in 2020? At the rate the automakers are actually working on serious oil alternatives, I’m inclined to doubt. I wouldn’t be half surprised if we were returning to horses and buggies.
posted by Brian on 3-5-2008 at 7:02 pm
This is just nitpicking, but I felt I should point out that Google’s Street View is not real time; they’re still photos. Though it’s true that you can enjoy a 360-degree view of the area you’re looking at.
posted by Kyle Gunn on 3-5-2008 at 7:12 pm
Well, I guess it won’t be long at all before Skynet takes over the world.
posted by Ernie on 3-5-2008 at 7:21 pm
Reading this reminded me of Vernor Vinge’s book Rainbows End (vrinimi.org/rainbowsend.html) where all cars drive themselves and are so aware of the surrounding environment that pedestrians often cross 6-lane highways without fear of injury. I’m just counting down the days until this is true for our world!
posted by nutmeag on 3-5-2008 at 8:05 pm
Hmmmm…video monitors at every intersection? Didn’t a guy named Orwell come up with that idea a few years back?
posted by David on 3-6-2008 at 12:11 am
Will my car get a f*cking job?
posted by Jared Probst on 3-6-2008 at 1:45 am
mental floss has jumped the shark.
posted by meh on 3-6-2008 at 2:00 am
Actually the toyota prius can park itself, not not your version. Go over to Britain, as they already have them.
posted by Benner on 3-6-2008 at 7:07 am
David, I agree with you, this is all sounding a little Orwellian.
posted by Alisia on 3-6-2008 at 9:04 am
I concur with the folks who think this future is looking “a little Orwellian.” Still, I would buy the car that drives itself…I could use an extra 15 minutes of sleep on the commute into work!
posted by Rae Rae on 3-6-2008 at 9:56 am
I REALLY want my car to fly. I don’t care how cliched future movie that is; I would love to have a flying car.
posted by M on 3-6-2008 at 11:48 am
In the book “The Pick-Up Artist” it describes cars that drive themselves, as well as several other cool features. The best idea about cars that the book presents is that the cars are set to pick up energy created by the friction of driving on the interstate that charges cells in the car to keep it running on electricity, so you don’t need gasoline.
posted by Ian EBH on 3-6-2008 at 12:53 pm
LOL Jared, good one.
posted by CK on 3-6-2008 at 12:53 pm
LOL Jared, good one.
posted by CK on 3-6-2008 at 12:53 pm
Re: the Toyota Pious parking itself…
Both the Japanese market and European Pious models have that option. It isn’t offered in the U.S…
Here’s some info:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/ptech/01/15/car.selfpark.ap/index.html
posted by Sid Morrison on 3-6-2008 at 1:18 pm
I AM AWARE OF MYSELF
posted by SKYNET on 3-6-2008 at 3:01 pm
Why not a chip that takes over the car when law enforcers are chasing it and pulls it over safely?
Or drives terrorist suspects to a jail?
Or union organizers?
posted by Big Boomer on 3-6-2008 at 3:03 pm
“they’ll be able to transmit video imagery right to your dashboard”
Unfortunately, you won’t be able to sell such great technology cars in Texas. They just passed a law here that no video device will be allowed in a vehicle that can be viewed by the driver. Another law passed by politicians who don’t really have anything better to do. I used to use a laptop in my big rig to keep track of where I was on the road. Against the law now.
posted by Bill on 3-6-2008 at 3:09 pm
This sounds like there will be a lot of government control. And I would definately agree that it sounds like 1984 is coming a lot sooner that I’m comfortable with. This one really bothered me:
“To make that possible, city governments and automakers are joining forces to launch new Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) systems.”
Great, so the local government can email us instant speeding tickets. I’m moving…..
posted by Joey on 3-6-2008 at 3:10 pm
You will rent your car from your ins company rather than buy it directly.
posted by hpavc on 3-6-2008 at 3:12 pm
No, these are things that European and Japanese cars will do in 2020. US cars will be lucky to be all electric by then.
posted by Keith on 3-6-2008 at 3:14 pm
Um…the satellite will recharge my car’s battery by beaming energy to it? This sounds a little too much like ThinkGeek’s April Fool’s product last year – wireless extension cords. It’s just not possible.
posted by Jon on 3-6-2008 at 3:33 pm
Omg…Big Boomer!!!I think I have a better suggestion…why not a chip that crashes the car when scary fascist people are driving??
posted by ANL on 3-6-2008 at 3:43 pm
Jon,
You can transmit power wirelessly via microwave, with little loss during the trip.
It’s perfectly possible, and it’s not even new, this came out in the 50’s.
posted by Dave on 3-6-2008 at 3:52 pm
@Keith
Exactly….
Also, this would open a whole can of worms; from security (let’s order 50 hamburgers to the guy pulling up in the Chevy Volt) to “Big Brother” authority (Cops pulling you over because you were going 10 mph over the speed limit 10 miles back to pass someone, and your car was flagged using the government controlled wireless sensors). Things will get very sticky. Also, they’ll be able to track you whereever you go at anytime. Some may think that as long as you have nothing to hide you shouldn’t worry, but when has the government or politics really shown us EVERYTHING.
posted by Nel on 3-6-2008 at 3:52 pm
@Kyle Gunn: RTFA
posted by Yifkong on 3-6-2008 at 4:00 pm
I sincerely doubt a car in 2020 will do any of these things. Sorry to be a killjoy, but I think everything in this article is pretty much rubbish. Anyone who works in AI or has done anything similar with neural networks will tell you that there’s a massive gap between where we are now and where we need to be to make ‘intelligent’ things useful. It’s just the kind of dross you get in Wired where a technology that’s been around in one form or another for the last ten years will now suddenly revolutionize society. When was the last time anything really changed society? Mobile phones, mass media?
Any car that can do anything remotely ‘automagical’ will only behave that way in extremely restricted environments. Anyone remember how they were going to make busy highways totally efficient by fitting automatic distance detectors on the front and backs of cars so they could all travel really fast about a foot apart? That was like the 80s and nada. It’s all hype because in real life it’s hard to do and that makes for boring reading.
In reality, the era of cheap oil is over and the demise of the dollar is looming. With the environment as it is we’re going to go to war over water eventually. People will struggle to live in self sustaining small communities and wont drive. Suburbia will no longer exist and the American empire is doomed (hint buy gold and silver).
And as for the Toyota that parks itself well yeah if you stop near the parking spot and then draw a box of where you want it to park on its little display. Not exactly driving up to a multi storey and clicking park is it? Apart from a slightly faster engine, electric windows, sat nav and cruise control, is your modern car really that much different to the 20 year old one you passed on the way home?
posted by SunshineBoy on 3-6-2008 at 4:06 pm
>>these are things that European and Japanese cars will do in 2020. US cars will be lucky to be all electric by then.
The US will be lucky if it still has a domestic automobile industry by then. :(
posted by Will on 3-6-2008 at 4:16 pm
SunshineBoy is wrong. Computer science is taking off at an alarming rate, and that includes artificial intelligence. Many things will soon be possible that once weren’t.
posted by Boris on 3-6-2008 at 4:22 pm
This whole thing seems stupid to me, I enjoy driving my car myself. Cars nowadays are already way too bloody expensive, sorry but i don’t have $3 mil to drop on a car thank you. Safer? i hope all the software that controls this is never made by microsoft, god forbid, besides, insurance companies would become obsolete, they’d never allow it.
posted by Dan on 3-6-2008 at 4:39 pm
these things wont ever be implemented for 1 simple reason.
Money
the government is not going to be the one to fork out the hundreds of trillions of dollars it would take to make every major road compatible with self driving cars
and private corporations sure as hell wont if it means they make $99.9bil this year instead of the $100bil they made last year
sh1t we about 10years behind in internet speeds cause private corps dont wanna take a cut from what they made last year to install new lines
posted by jared on 3-6-2008 at 4:44 pm
goodluck getting batteries to the point they will need to be also
Exxon-Mobil owns the patents for the next-gen battery technologies, we wont be seeing them until ExMo doesnt make money on gas anymore
posted by jared on 3-6-2008 at 4:46 pm
@ Brian: Do you honestly believe we will run out of oil by 2020? I hope you dont do any betting.
posted by Tony Tripod on 3-6-2008 at 4:52 pm
Yeah, and 15 years ago they said by now we’d have 100 miles per gallon cars and a bunch of other stuff that we’re not even close to. 30 years ago they said we’d be driving hover crafts now. None of it ever happened.
posted by dern on 3-6-2008 at 4:54 pm
“insurance companies would become obsolete, they’d never allow it”
Times change, F*ck em
But I too enjoy driving my car myself. Now and then.
posted by Shant on 3-6-2008 at 4:59 pm
Heyas
I’m worried about the whole ‘Big Brother’ thing too. One way to ameliorate the problems is to make sure that everybody, not just the government has access to the system. That wouldn’t eliminate the problems, but it could very well make them manageable.
I also see people having, presumably illegal, kill switches installed in their cars, cutting them off from the network and enabling manual control. Heck, those might not even be illegal if there are enough people worried about potential software failure.
BTW I highly recommend David Brin’s book: ‘The Transparent Society’ which discusses a lot of these ideas.
posted by Larry J Jones on 3-6-2008 at 5:13 pm
LOL those are some interesting things. Also, insurance companies will no longer exist.
posted by Sell Online on 3-6-2008 at 5:18 pm
I would like to point out that control systems and artificial intelligence are different things. Control systems are based on rigorous mathematical algorithms and systems theory. Artificial intelligence is typically based heuristics rules or emergent systems such as neural networks. These sort of emergent systems are still very primitive and heuristic rules are limited in their usefulness. Furthermore, emergent systems and heuristic rules are difficult to analyze analytically thus rigorous proofs of the operation are typically not possible. As a result they are too unpredictable to be used in application where human lives are at stake.
As a controls engineer myself, I do think the technologies describe in this article will be developed in the near future. However they will come from the controls field and not the artificial intelligence field. We are smarter than computer scientists.
posted by Daniel on 3-6-2008 at 6:02 pm
I’ll still be waiting for my flying car..
posted by David on 3-6-2008 at 6:22 pm
The cops have had the ability to give out remote speeding tickets for years. If you have a toll-tag or whatever they call it your state: the device that automatically pays your toll when you drive under a toll reader….then if it takes 10 minutes to drive from toll booth 1 to toll booth 2 @ the speed limit, and you drive from booth 1 to booth 2 in 8 minutes, the system could compute your speed and mail you a speeding ticket. Only the fact that this technology has been around for 20 years and I’ve never heard of any State using it for that purpose gives me any hope it won’t be enabled in future technology.
posted by Mr. Unloadingzone on 3-6-2008 at 6:45 pm
All this technology is possible but will cost money. By 2020, the average American will be luck to be making $30K a year…most considerably less.
But at least when an MBA is helping a client, he’ll be able to ask “Would you like fries with that?” in Spanish.
posted by Mr. Unloadingzone on 3-6-2008 at 6:51 pm
Watch some 1980’s scifi movies and notice they all take place either 8 years ago (2000) or only a few years from the present date. Now look around you today,do you anything from those movies in real life (Technology developed wise) Nope. Nothing none of it,yes some things that have close characteristics but that’s as close as we’ll get,characteristics or close but not really type of spoofs.I know that the key word is SCIFI but still,notice a lot of the “future patients” and scientific/technical predictions for our “future” are about but pretty much the same as the 80’s scifi movies,and notice at how rapid these things are pumped out into society,not very rapid paced at all,almost like a slowly but surely attempt at “advancing”.
posted by AK on 3-6-2008 at 6:51 pm
haahahh nice jared
posted by eric on 3-6-2008 at 10:06 pm
@ Yifkong:
“It’s similar to Google’s new Street View maps system. Already available in larger cities like San Francisco and New York, the application shows fluid, 360-degree > images of nearly every block in the area. And while it’s only accessible from computers now, similar > images will soon be available right on your dash.”
RTFA.
posted by Kyle Gunn on 3-6-2008 at 10:23 pm
I hate to be that guy, but here goes:
Number 1 and 5, Incredible machine vision AI, and Driverless cars definitely won’t be happening by 2020.
Number 2 and 3, national wifi and smartroads would easily require Billions; yes, BILLIONS in infrastructure, and considering the current state of our bridge and road maintenance funding, that is definitely not happening anytime soon.
Number 4, RFID embedded debit/credit card, I just flat out don’t want. It would be a huge liability, as if identity theft isn’t bad enough. And how often would you really get a chance to use it? Just for drive-thrus? It really only makes sense when using enclosed systems, like the RFID devices for Toll roads.
Sorry to be a troll, but poorly researched article.
posted by 007Brendan on 3-6-2008 at 10:48 pm
Whether it will be possible and whether it will actually happen aren’t so important to me.
I side with the paranoiacs here.
What I would like for future transportation is superefficient and widely available mass transit.
I believe the average car of the future will run on something other than fossil fuel and will be mechanically and aesthetically very basic. Most parts (engine, body, whatever) will be easily replaceable. We will move away from the idea of the car as status symbol/trophy and toward the idea of a practical tool with minimal economic and environmental impact. This should happen because of the resurgence of mass transit which (in the US) the government and automakers conspired to destroy back in the ’50s.
posted by Bassman on 3-7-2008 at 8:50 am
Big Brother is driving you… ok, ok I’ll shut up and drink my Victory Gin.
posted by dillbert on 3-8-2008 at 12:05 am
wooow a chance for hackers to assasin their enemies by takin over d car en crashin it.
posted by jozay on 3-8-2008 at 1:50 pm
Mercedes hae already shown their fully automatic driverless car to motor journalists everywhere.
Old news.
posted by Johan on 3-10-2008 at 1:02 am
Now that DSRC is being implemented, at least on paper, shouldn’t the police be able to utilize that for a chase before its out of control? Send a signal to all cars within 100 feet or other predetermined range and make those particular cars go, lets say 1 mph for 2-5 mins. This tech could eliminate all those LA news choppers, that pretty green right? ;)
posted by schinbone on 3-10-2008 at 1:31 pm
F-ing finally! This is super necessary not just for the convenience but to address some of the basic congestion, pollution and overpopulation. A number of bloggers and technology columist are talking about this but since the government is critical for success – I won’t be holding my breath. Check out the top disruptive technologies article on alienreviews.com for how important this and what other things will be needed.
posted by hardlyboyz on 3-12-2008 at 9:07 am
Its not possible for a satellite to transmit anywhere close to enough power to have any given car receive a usable amount of power. I mean think about it, a radio tower pumps out 50 million watts of energy, and your antenna, even just a few miles away still needs an amplifier to make use of the energy it collects.
Why even bother with a satellite anyways? Its just another step for energy to be lost. Just put the solar cells on the roof of the car.
Whos idea was that to include this in the article. It ruined the article for me.
posted by Phil on 3-12-2008 at 2:29 pm
Not sure what all the fuss is about, i jump in the passanger seat of my car now and state a destination, drives me straight to the door and drops me off, i make a call when im ready picks me back up again, 24/7 365. not sure what happens when i get out, whether it parks up or drives around, but its great hastle free motoring, its not a factory fit option and sometimes the navigation goes a bit hay wire, you should check it out, ( Wired Interactive Free Enviroment ) or WIFE for short. :)
posted by Rik on 3-12-2008 at 5:24 pm
yes, and people will be able to hack your car’s onboard computer and program it to drive you to a convenient spot for a jacking. Or kidnapping. Or old fashion murder and mayhem.
posted by Kavan Wolfe on 3-12-2008 at 7:41 pm
Really? a car that will be debited and not a visa? This seems way too weird to be real…I think I’ll stick to the credit card rather than the car.
posted by Carol V. Sanchez on 3-25-2008 at 1:09 pm
That’s a really cute !!
I am new to your blog and found it very refreshing and informative.
posted by rudiemods on 11-24-2008 at 7:43 am