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Looks like the cars from Blade Runner are never going to happen — or not anytime soon, anyway. IBM’s Institute for Business Value undertook a massive survey of automotive experts from all over the world in order to discover the shape of things to come, and the results are green: among other findings, it’s believed that all new cars will be hybrids by 2020. The industry may well be unrecognizably different in just over a decade, and the reasons for this are many:
• Vehicles will become more intelligent. “Electronics will bring new capabilities to every part of the vehicle. New technologies will provide for greater assistance in navigation, enhanced driver information about the vehicle, its environment and vehicle connectivity.” (I’m not sure what “vehicle connectivity” means, but so far I’m imagining Kit from Knight Rider.)
• Corporate social responsibility becomes a buying factor. “Consumers will be more empowered and sophisticated. They will also become increasingly watchful and wary about how companies perform outside the manufacturing and distribution processes. Corporate social responsibility will become markedly more important to the consumer.” I hope so — but I’m a bit more skeptical of this one.
• Sustainability hits the bottom line. “The impact of external forces on the industry will continue to be significant, but the leading influencers will be radically different from those that affect the industry today. Technology will continue lead, but other issues, such as sustainability, will migrate to near the top of the list.”
Among the more specific (and relevant) predictions they trot out, one of the most interesting is about ethanol: food-based ethanol will fade away, they believe, thanks in part to rising food costs and the “chorus of vocal dissent” which already exists regarding its use. In its place, cellulosic and other waste-based ethanols will come into play more heavily (I recently blogged about a Japanese airplane that’s partly garbage-fueled); the report predicts “widespread acceptance” of these kinds of next-gen fuels.
As for hybrids, the experts say that “battery technology will be ubiquitous” and that “all new vehicles in 2020 will have some level of hybridization.” Hydrogen cars will be out there, but not quite as ubiquitous: “even optimistic projections put only a small fraction of vehicle production migrating to this technology (less than 1 percent of vehicles in the United States).”
Another interesting prediction is that rather than having just one car for all our transpo needs, the consumer will shift toward owning a diverse “garage” of vehicles. Which is to say, “lifestyle changes will allow access to luxury or larger vehicles during the weekends, as an example, while a small, efficient vehicle will suffice for daily commuting needs.” (Are they saying we’ll all be rich?!)
So there you have it — smaller, greener, cleaner, and a big honkin’ truck for weekends at the lake. How does that sound to everyone?
Comments (22)
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“Vehicle connectivity” means that the cars will talk to each other. They will essentially form a computer network to share information about driving conditions.
I could write a 100,000 word essay and only scratch the surface, but here is a summary: It will allow you to get on freeway and let go of the wheel. Cars will be able to drive themselves safely at about 6″ apart. That means a much faster and safer commute home.
posted by n2y2 on 8-26-2008 at 10:38 am
I always wonder what will happen to all of the “old” cars…will they be recycled? or just left to die in junk yards?
posted by Julia on 8-26-2008 at 11:09 am
n2y2
“Cars will be able to drive themselves safely at about 6″ apart.”
I hope you meant 6 feet apart and not 6 inches. I don’t know if I could feel confortable 6 inches from everyone.
Suddenly, I find myself thinking of Spinal Tap. 18″ or 18′.
posted by Kevin on 8-26-2008 at 11:34 am
What happens to the old cars now? They will probably wear out before they become obsolete (there’s always been a less-technological part of the world that can use them). Disposal of inoperable vehicles will continue as it does now or, ideally, we’ll develop something more efficient.
posted by kittymama on 8-26-2008 at 11:43 am
Kevin-
That is not a misprint. Since all the cars will be controlled by a central “authority”, they will all act in concert, allowing for a much greater vehicle density on the highways. We’ll be able to accomodate many more cars on existing roads.
All I have to say is thank God they still aren’t pushing for flying cars. After my daily commute, I can’t imagine that brain-dead bunch having to cope with an additional dimension.
reCAPTCA: patron mobile
posted by Anthony on 8-26-2008 at 11:47 am
I dunno, every time I look at the future cars thing and someone mentions vehicles running off of waste products, I keep thinking of “Mr. Fusion” sticking out of the Delorean in Back to the Future II. You know, the thing the professor shoves the banana peels into?
And I kinda have to admit that the self driving car thing still seems exceptionally self-indulgent. If you want someone else to drive you home, why not take the bus? Will this effectively eliminate public transportation? I hope not. Because that would create a whole series of new problems in large cities that are already struggling to handle that percent of the population that insists on driving down streets that were originally designed to be horse/cart and pedestrian: Where do you put them all?
rC: Higgins tions
posted by ACute Angle on 8-26-2008 at 11:53 am
ACute Angle:
I don’t see self-driving cars as self-indulgent. Theoretically, they’ll be safer. With computers knowing when the car in front of you will stop or slow down, it can react much faster than any human can, thus less accidents. Of course, with computers still malfunctioning, and the threat of a hacker getting into the car system, there’s still plenty of variables that keep it from being a viable way of driving. But perhaps things will change in the future. Read Vernor Vinge’s Rainbows End for a good look at self-driving cars that work.
posted by nutmeag on 8-26-2008 at 12:41 pm
Kevin,
The safe distance between cars will begin with a large distance: 6′, probably more. As the technology is proven reliable and improves, the distance will shrink; eventually arriving at 6″. Whether all cars are controlled by a central router, as Anthony suggested, or they are all self-determinate by their own internal processors, the cars will be cognizant of what is happening on the road 1000 meters ahead and will be able to react accordingly before a human could even perceive the condition.
posted by n2y2 on 8-26-2008 at 1:36 pm
ACute Angle,
Self-indulgent my be a by-product, but the purpose is practicality. In Metropolises public transportation is viable for nearly all needs. However, most people live in mid-sized cities that cannot support a comprehensive public transport system.
Also, Auto-driving will be limited to highway driving for a long time after it’s introduction. Surface streets are much more difficult to traverse. For many decades you will have to drive your car onto the freeway, then engage the “Auto-pilot” until you get to your off-ramp.
kittymama,
Both old and new cars will share the road. When these new cars are introduced, there will be designated lanes for them; like carpool lanes now. That will allow for the old cars to be naturally obsoleted.
As I said, 100,000 words would just scratch the surface of this topic.
posted by n2y2 on 8-26-2008 at 1:51 pm
In terms of IBM’s survey, vehicle connectivity is more about how the different electrical systems will work together more efficiently. Think about the power consumption of a vehicle that is running one (or more) DVD players, a satellite radio, a navigation system, and lights. Engineering electrical systems that provide for these power needs in the most effective and fuel efficient means necessary is a big priority as automakers go green.
Along the lines of “n2y2″’s comment, you should expect to see cars running wifi connections in the next 3-5 years, allowing drivers a broader and more reliable stream of information than what is currently available from satellite.
posted by Rob Hogan on 8-26-2008 at 1:52 pm
“Hydraulic Hybrids” will also become important for vehicles that have to pull heavy loads. Instead of batteries, energy lost to braking and slowing down will be stored as hydraulic pressure. Instead of an electric motor, addeded torgue will come from the store pressure.
Hydraulic Hybrids make more sense for large vehicles because they have to maintain the heavy load which electric hybrids are not intended. Look for these soon in the trucking industry, which desperately needs cheaper fuel costs.
posted by Morris on 8-26-2008 at 2:01 pm
I personally would love to have a self driving car. I would take public transportation were it available to me. I would much rather be able to read a book for my 40 minute commute.
posted by Vickey on 8-26-2008 at 2:44 pm
Not to burst your bubbles, but when a hybrid crashes, their electrical systems go haywire, greatly increasing your chances of electrocution- they can release anywhere from 144 to 650 volts of power, an amount that could easily kill a full size adult.
Not only do they pose a risk to the inhabitants, but also to rescue crews, and/or bystanders who wish to offer a helping hand.
I’ll stick with my “ancient” gas powered autombile.
posted by Cassie on 8-26-2008 at 4:36 pm
Cassie,
Those are a bunch of trite urban legends about hybrids. Toyota has spent millions training first-responders on Hybrid safety.
Today’s hybrids have layers of electrical safety built in. The insulating layers are build so that you can cut the main electrical transmission line (500V) with the jaws of life and never receive a shock becuase it will short itself out and feed the voltage to safely back to its own negative terminal. And that is only one of the many safety measures taken.
If you want something to worry about, gasoline has more explosive energy per pound than TNT. Far more people die when their fuel systems catch fire or explode than will ever be electrocuted by their cars.
After 10 years of mass production and more than 1 million hybrids produced, I cannot find a single instance of an electrocution death, only a bunch of Luddite Chicken Littles warning us of the impending danger.
posted by n2y2 on 8-26-2008 at 6:50 pm
one the contrary, self driving car is cool. But if we have so many robots, why we need a car to go another place? we can solve all things at home.
posted by erichansa on 8-27-2008 at 4:48 am
2020: Cars of the Future | Deliggit.com…
\r\nLooks like the cars from Blade Runner are never going to happen ? or not anytime…
posted by Deliggit.com | The social sites' most interesting urls on 8-27-2008 at 6:24 am
Cassie,
N2y2 is right – those are just myths about hybrid cars. I have personally been in an accident while driving a Hybrid vehicle. It was a fairly serious accident and my car was totalled. However, there were no electrical issues and no one on the scene was injured. It’s really illogical to think that a hybrid car would cause such a danger in a crash scenario.
posted by Michelle on 8-27-2008 at 9:56 am
I went to car test centre outside Birmingham, UK as part of IET trip. They discussed about communication between cars and traffic control. One of biggest issue that must be answered: will the software qualify (or entrusted) to make decision on hazardous event and most important; can the car system be immuned from external influence (ie mobile hacker, virus, etc)?.
One of concern that if memory bits suffered failure how does car behaviour react to this occurance, is there backup safety system that shutdown the car and cannot drive again unless car memory is repaired (costly bill).
I feel much safer with human taking control of the car, only allowing computer to alert driver of damager or handle cruise driving mode.
We rely human to write the software, human are subjective being so the car is subjective, this is why the idea will likely to fail after deadly accident as they come out of production.
posted by riscy on 8-27-2008 at 11:40 am
This is ridiculous. Futurists always tell us about how we’ll all have flying/magic cars in the near future, but what they’re forgetting is that the majority of people in the world don’t own cars now. People are poor, food is running out, and these problems will only get worse as the population continues to explode. Sure, a few exploitative rich people might have access to this kind of technology, but the vast majority of humanity will just be scrambling to eat their next meal. Maybe we should figure out how to stabilize the population and get everybody enough food to survive before we promise “a diverse garage of vehicles for everyone.”
posted by Ryan on 8-27-2008 at 11:47 am
“People are poor, food is running out, and these problems will only get worse as the population continues to explode. Sure, a few exploitative rich people might have access to this kind of technology, but the vast majority of humanity will just be scrambling to eat their next meal.”
So why are you sitting on a blog if this is such a big deal, shouldn’t you be out doing something?
Anyways, back to the actual post… I don’t know when it’s going to happen, 2020, 2030, 20__? But, vehicles are definitely going to be switching over to hybrid. An all electric vehicle would be great, but the technology isn’t quite there yet. Batteries may very well always be heavy, but they don’t necessarily have the range yet to take the place of everybody’s current car.
However, the hybrid vehicles can bridge that gap. They have the all battery power for short trips and then kick in a gas generator to continue on for the longer trips. Take for example, the Aptera. They have a hybrid model that can get 300mpg for 350 to 400 miles, which is pretty crazy. Until battery and/or solar technology gets better, hybrids are going to be the future.
posted by Anon on 8-27-2008 at 12:08 pm
While the software and safety factor is the limiting factor, they rely on complex array of sensor with lot of electronics to translate the sensor data into meaningful data for car computer. In event of sensor failure or incorrect/subjective data due to external interference and influence, how the car computer cope with this. Will they prevent driver continue to drive, otherwise stuck in middle of nowhere until driver run out of water and die of thirst.
Writing software for the car system requires high safety integrity. There is special standard (MIRAS) for this but cannot use C# or general programming practice. The rules are quite complex. You write 50 line of code for 30min (say) and it would take 1-2 week to test the code to ensure compliance to safety standard.
Because of huge task of writing software to perform safety related task, it is very expensive and big challenge to find costly programmer with least subjective mind (ie resisting manager for short-cut and cost cutting tactic).
I wish good luck to car industry.
posted by riscy on 8-27-2008 at 9:38 pm
always been waiting for the futuristic car. Had 1 in my dream lol…
posted by andi on 9-4-2008 at 2:49 am