Comments on: Why I’m Ignoring the Polls This Year (Hint: Cell Phones)

By: Cindy H.

Cindy H. — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:00:30 +0000

I haven’t had a landline in years (and, I too, have a security system rigged to voip)…but I have been contemplating returning to it…perhaps dumping the voip.

The technology is actually much more stable in the case of, say, a hurricane? Power outages – no voip, and cell better be charged. But the rusty old landline is still available.

911 service, while available to cell now, has been available, more dependable and more refined than cell.

It’s just reliable and has been for years. So I’m starting to lean towards going back for basic service with the landline…

As for the pollsters, I try not to look at them…and I do a pretty decent job. But the article makes me feel a little better about what’s going on. :-)

By: Nathan

Nathan — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 02:25:03 +0000

I am sure someone above noticed this, but pollsters weight their numbers to account for this. So an 18-24 year old voter that they reach on a land line in a city would have their preference weighted enough to account for those without landlines. If you notice, even in the primaries, many pollsters got within a few points meaning they have some idea what they are doing. What you can do is really try to pin point difference between people with and without cellphones that there is no way a pollster could, or is weighting for as well as looking through the details of how pollsters weight their samples. This may be a trade secret though so some pollsters are more open than others.

By: M

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:27:11 +0000

I don’t know why they have to do them by phone, anyway. I hate talking to strangers on the phone, but I’d gladly do a survey online.

By: NicoNico

NicoNico — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 21:28:41 +0000

I’m early 20-something and I *used* to have a cell phone, but I also have a hearing problem. I would ask that they text the cell instead of calling, since it was so hard to hear them (it would come out as a buzzing, garbled mess), but none would listen. After constant texting to those who wouldn’t listen to (or read, really) my pleading, I wound up dropping it entirely. They want to talk, they can IM me. (Landlines are also hard to hear, but on a corded phone with the person on the other line talking very slowly and clearly – with them preferably on a corded as well -, I can make them out.)

Now, those phone surveys are skewed anyway. There are not only Voip services out there (I know young people who use this instead of both cells and landlines), but you don’t have to talk to them, either. I can tell you I *never* pick up the phone when those survey people call. Oh, and I’m not sure about this, but I also believe they don’t call TTY phones, either, thus cutting out even more of the population.

And landline phone service is expensive, as well. I pay about $95/month for DSL and phone service. The phone service is $80. :P

By: tiffany

tiffany — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 21:13:17 +0000

It seems that the people who run these polls would have a pretty good handle on what might skew the numbers. I like to think they’re making some adjustments for this idea. Also, aren’t they doing some of the polling via the internet now? Wouldn’t that be aimed toward the demographic that doesn’t have a land line?

By: Amy D

Amy D — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:23:23 +0000

I have no landline. My husband (he’s 40) and I (I am 28) only have cell phones. We have discussed getting a landline, but feel that it is not necessary right now. When we have kids, we will definitely get a landline. But until then, for our purposes, it is impractical.

By: Beetlejuice

Beetlejuice — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:59:56 +0000

Gallup does include cell phone only users in their polls. It is worth the extra money for them to make their polls more accurate.

“Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).”

I can understand your desire for this to be the case — cell phone only users are under reported, but I’m not sure you give the polling companies enough credit here.

By: WarTiger

WarTiger — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 17:09:17 +0000

spj- i think your point about caller id is interesting, and most likely very true.

I’m 23 and only have a cell phone and my 50-something mother doesn’t have a landline either, so I think the trend is not limited to my age group.

By: Kinglink

Kinglink — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:29:34 +0000

Remember in 2004 Kerry was going to win in a land slide.. Didn’t happen. Polls are never correct, but they arn’t always biased in the way you think they are. What if republicans arn’t home when they call? What if they are sampling from a heavily democratic areas? What if one party generally chooses not to answer polls?

The simple fact is polls are always wrong for the simple fact they are polls. But the sad thing is people are coming out against the polls now because their candidate is slipping.

By: sjf

sjf — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 15:55:42 +0000

I agree that cell-only voters are being overlooked and will take it further. Not only are polls ignoring cell users, but also people that use Caller ID to filter out unknown numbers – I think that is a statistically significant portion of the population.

This year’s political polls are being determined by a random group of under 5,000 people across the country who answer their landline phones, regardless of who may be calling or what the Caller ID says. I am guessing that this demographic skews older and rural.

This is admittedly a hunch and not scientific, but I think it’s interesting.