It occurs to me that between the football and the skinny-dipping, I am probably painting the media retreat I’ve just attended as some sort of hedonistic summer camp. Which it was. But we also took statistics classes while we were there (3.33333 [to infinity] classes per day, to be exact), and so I thought for the next few days I’d share a little of what I learned, starting with this: I’m making you a deal. You have a choice of:

A) A lottery with an 80% chance of winning $4,000 and a 20% chance of winning nada, or
B) $3,000 in cold hard guaranteed cash.

Now, let’s say I’m making you a raw deal instead. You have a choice of:

A) A lottery with an 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of losing nothing, or
B) Giving me $3,000, preferably in small unmarked bills.

Let me know in the comments section which option you’re going with in both cases — people generally answer in a counterintuitive and logically silly way. When we come back from the holiday I’ll explain why….