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Wrapping up my week of Las Vegas blog posts, I thought I’d finally mention gambling. I am not a gambler. However, I am a nerd. So when my brother and I sat down in front of the simplest, lowest-bet (5 cent) video poker machines we could find, my first thought was: what is the optimal strategy for this game? If I knew what to do for each set of cards that came up, could I make money at this? (And yes, I am a naive nerd…more on this in a moment.)
Web to the rescue, of course. Optimal Blackjack strategy can be expressed as a chart comparing your current hand against the dealer’s visible card. So that’s pretty simple, and a normal human being has some change of learning the rules. However, poker has more cards involved, and more complexity in the winning condition. Texas Hold ‘Em Poker Strategy is often expressed as a calculator requiring you to enter your hand as well as the cards on the table to get a recommendation on next steps. But none of this was what I really needed — my brother and I were playing five-card video poker. Here’s an encyclopedic “Jacks or Better” strategy…no offense to the strategist, but utterly incomprehensible to me. The simple strategy is better, but still requires a lot of homework.
After a little thinking, it occurred to me that even playing the optimal strategy, you’re still losing money — it just takes longer. So I just spent my remaining few bucks on Megabucks, which involved pulling a big lever and yelling “Megabucks!” — well worth the $1 per play. (Note to purists: you cannot win the Megabucks jackpot without betting at least $3, which as you can see, reduces your lever-pulling by 2/3, which makes it totally lame.)
I work at a slot machine company and have programmed several poker games. A few notes:
No heuristic video poker strategy is going to be 100% accurate. There are thousands of unique cases to consider and reducing them to a set of a few dozen rules cuts some corners. For example, Bob Dancer’s rules will get 95.3% payback on a game that can pay back 97.3% when played optimally (Rainman with a computer in his back pocket). It’s a question of how hard you want to work for that 2%.
Some of the earliest video poker games paid back more that 100% if played optimally. At the time, manufacturers didn’t have the computational horsepower to evaluate the full field of possibilities, so they made some educated guesses. Those machines are very hard to find - I don’t know of any still operational in Nevada.
Some jurisdictions require that the video poker machine show you the correct cards to hold. Surprisingly, they are less popular, because players either want to think for themselves, don’t trust the machines or go with whatever feels lucky.
Thank you for paying the Nevada income tax.
posted by Bryan on 3-9-2007 at 2:45 pm