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2spare has a list of the top 87 bad predictions about the future, serving as a sort of catalog for the short-sighted. Some favorites:
“It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become Prime Minister.”
Margaret Thatcher, future Prime Minister, October 26th, 1969.“Man will not fly for 50 years.”
Wilbur Wright, American aviation pioneer, to brother Orville, after a disappointing flying experiment, 1901 (their first successful flight was in 1903).“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad.”
The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903.“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977.“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”
Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio in 1921.(On the subject of rockets.) “We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.” -– U.S. postmaster general Arthur Summerfield, in 1959.
There are tons more in the source article, and even a Wikipedia page on famous predictions. This all leads me to think…I’ve made some pretty bad predictions. The one I remember best is when, as a loyal CompuServe customer, I first saw the World Wide Web via an early version of Mosaic, in my brother’s college dorm room. “What’s this good for?” I asked. “Here, look at my home page,” he said, bringing up a page of information about himself and his studies. I shook my head. “This web thing is stupid. Nobody’s going to pay for this — I’ll stick with CompuServe.” Sigh.
Have you made a bad prediction? Come on, I’m sure you have. Share in the comments, if you dare.
Comments (17)
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I said I would never have children, even telling a friend that if I did get pregnant I would give the child up. Six months later I was pregnant.
I now have two beautiful sons, ages 13 and 9. The experience of being a mother has been the absolute best thing in my life.
posted by Elizabeth on 11-8-2007 at 9:39 am
I remember thinking the Washington Redskins’ Steve Spurrier era couldn’t miss.
Before this NFL season, I picked a Saints-Broncos Super Bowl.
I had high hopes for ‘Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip.’
In 2004, in social networking, I would have bet on Friendster.
“Bernie Kerik? What a great choice for Secretary of Homeland Security!”
posted by Jason on 11-8-2007 at 9:41 am
“Too bad Al lost. But hey, how much harm could that Bush clown really do?”
posted by EV on 11-8-2007 at 10:02 am
I remember when Madonna first came on the scene. My brother was lamenting that he couldn’t stand her. I said, “Don’t worry dude, in a couple of years people will be saying, ‘Ma-Who.”
Here we are…20 years later.
posted by Kelli on 11-8-2007 at 10:08 am
I thought that Yahoo had everything going for it and Google would be a flash in the pan…. giving stuff away for free – what kind of business model is that anyway????
posted by Owen on 11-8-2007 at 10:23 am
The day Google went public, I had the chance to buy a few shares for $111.
I declined – I decided the stock had already topped its price. *sigh*
Today, it’s trading up over $700 a share.
I’m a terrible market timer.
posted by Laurie D. T. Mann on 11-8-2007 at 10:29 am
While teaching in Japan in the late 90s, I smugly told a group of high school students that American kids would never get into the tamagochi craze. I think I made similarly foolish predictions on a half-dozen import fads.
posted by Paul on 11-8-2007 at 10:31 am
“Seriously, there’s no WAY the American people are so stupid they’d elect this clown again, I don’t care how lame Kerry is.”
posted by Josh on 11-8-2007 at 10:33 am
I have a funny one from my father.
In the late 60’s, just as he’s turning into a teenager, he hears an album by an up and coming artist name Santana. He goes to the record store and buys it and walks home with his cousin David. He puts the album on, David listens to the whole thing and exclaims “They’ve got this all wrong. The lead guitarist (Santana) has no talent, its the Organ player who’s going to make it big”
posted by alicia on 11-8-2007 at 11:32 am
I can’t remember making a bad prediction, but I do remember making a GOOD one (told here not to be off topic but because I think it’s funny).
Couple of years ago, when iPods started getting fancier and having more space, I sarcastically told my mom “Ha, watch, next the stupid things will be able to make phone calls.”
posted by Kate on 11-8-2007 at 1:21 pm
A few years ago I was chatting with one of my mentors at work, And the discussion was who would be elected first a woman or an african american man as President of the United States. He said the american public is 50 years from being ready for that. Still could be fifty years, but as of right now the chances are good for either.
posted by Julian on 11-8-2007 at 1:36 pm
In ‘94 I told my wife no one would ever buy anything over the internet.
posted by Nick on 11-8-2007 at 3:23 pm
In 1994, I made my first purchase from the Web – a 3 pound wheel of cheese from Cabot Creamery.
posted by Laurie Mann on 11-8-2007 at 10:24 pm
Reality television will never last.
posted by Henry on 11-8-2007 at 11:18 pm
I know someone who passed on a business deal to sell bottled water. He didn’t think anyone would be stupid enough to pay for something they can get from the tap.
My FIL met someone who was developing frozen french fries and at the time my FIL and his coworkers thought he was crazy. Wouldn’t people rather buy them fresh?
Both stories show that consumers are a lot stupider than some people give them credit for. :)
posted by Yonit on 11-10-2007 at 1:19 pm
When I was a teenager, I went ice skating with a slightly older acquaintance of mine. We were flirting with some guys and she asked me what I thought about the one she was talking to. I said “I don’t think you two have much in common”. They’ve been happily married for 18 years and have two kids!
posted by Mar on 11-19-2007 at 9:23 am
I made the same call as original writer with regard to world wide web when I first saw it via Mosaic. I had taken a class on the Internet and was impressed with how easy it was to research libraries in Berlin and Pisa via Veronica searches etc. and downloading info to my Mac at home. When we saw a website with Mosaic at end of class (1994) it was so slow loading, I said, “Who would ever want to do this?”
posted by ed newman on 1-7-2009 at 8:40 pm