6 Things to Know Now That Hurricane Season Has Started

A tiny Tropical Storm Arlene swirls harmlessly in the central Atlantic Ocean on April 20, 2017.
A tiny Tropical Storm Arlene swirls harmlessly in the central Atlantic Ocean on April 20, 2017.
Image Credit: NASA

Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean on April 20, 2017, briefly coming to life far away from land—where it was little more than an oddity to gawk at on satellite imagery. Even though the short-lived system wasn’t much of a threat (beyond aggravating some fish), the early start to the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season grabbed headlines.

But if you're a coastal resident anxious about the summer to come, fear not! It doesn't necessarily bode ill for the season. Now is as good a time as any to talk about what you can expect in this upcoming year, and to take a look at the innovative ways forecasters are improving how you can prepare for an approaching storm.

1. DON’T GET TRIPPED UP BY THE TERM SUBTROPICAL.

Tropical Storm Arlene first began its life as a subtropical cyclone. The word subtropical sounds intimidating, but it just describes the meteorological structure of the storm itself. Tropical cyclones are low-pressure systems that form over warm ocean waters and maintain their strength through thunderstorms raging near the center of the storm. They are tight, compact systems that are warm and muggy all the way from the surface to the top of the clouds.

The atmosphere is fluid, though, so not all storms perfectly fit that definition. That’s where subtropical cyclones enter the picture. A subtropical cyclone is one that resembles a tropical cyclone, but it’s not completely warm throughout the storm. It’s also not compact. Unlike a tropical cyclone, where the strongest winds are concentrated right near the center of the storm, the wind field in a subtropical cyclone can be far removed from the center and stretch hundreds of miles across. Sometimes these cyclones progress into tropical versions, sometimes they don't.

2. A STORM IN APRIL ISN’T AN OMEN FOR THE SEASON TO COME.

It’s not too unusual for a tropical or subtropical system to develop before the start of hurricane season. Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30, but that’s just when they’re most likely to develop. The 2016 hurricane season started with Hurricane Alex in January—which was highly unusual—with the season’s second system, Tropical Storm Bonnie, forming in May. The last time we saw a storm in April was Tropical Storm Ana near Bermuda in April 2003.

Since 2007, we’ve seen eight tropical or subtropical cyclones develop before the official start of hurricane season. These early-season storms formed in years that were both quiet and active. In other words, storms that form before the start of hurricane season are usually case studies in their own right rather than a sign of things to come. Plus, no matter how many storms develop, it only takes one storm hitting land to cause major problems.

3. IT’S HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS HURRICANE SEASON.

So much of what happens in the Atlantic Ocean’s hurricane season depends on what’s going on out in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña can have a major impact on how many storms are able to form. Years with El Niño conditions tend to see fewer storms in the Atlantic due to increased wind shear, which shreds potential storms apart before they can develop. Years featuring a La Niña can have the opposite effect, as cool waters in the Pacific help reduce destructive wind shear flowing out over the Atlantic—creating more opportunities for tropical systems to develop.

We’re in a “neutral” phase of the El Niño-La Niña cycle right now, which means that water temperatures in the eastern Pacific are right around where they should be. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is also calling for the chance for an El Niño toward the peak of hurricane season, though nothing is set in stone. If that happens as forecast, there’s a chance this season might come in a little quieter than average.

4. FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THEY WERE A FEW YEARS AGO.

A forecast map showing the cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Matthew on October 3, 2016.Image Credit: Dennis Mersereau

When tropical storms and hurricanes fire up this summer, the most noticeable part of the coverage you’ll see online and on television is the cone of uncertainty, a shaded bubble that stretches along the length of the storm’s forecast track. This cone of uncertainty is the historical margin of error in hurricane track forecasts. Forecasts today are good enough that you can expect that the eye of a tropical cyclone will stay somewhere within that cone of uncertainty about two-thirds of the time.

At the end of each hurricane season, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) calculate the error in their previous forecasts and determine how far off their track forecasts were, on average. The NHC takes this average error at each time step and uses the resulting distance to draw a circle around their forecast points, connecting each circle to make the cone we’re all familiar with. The cone of uncertainty has steadily shrunk over the years—and the cone will grow a little narrower once again this year.

5. GET READY FOR STORM SURGE WARNINGS.

The deadliest part of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane is flooding from storm surge, or the sea water that’s pushed inland by strong, persistent winds. Most storm surges are small; however, the surge in a large or intense storm can completely submerge a one-story home and push water several miles inland.

Since the threat for storm surge flooding can get lost in the focus on how strong the wind is blowing, the NHC will start officially issuing storm surge watches and warnings this year. Communities placed under one of these new storm surge warnings can expect life-threatening coastal flooding within 36 hours. This new focus on flooding might help convince people who would otherwise attempt to ride out the storm that it’s a better idea to leave for a few days than risk their lives.

6. YOU’LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHEN THINGS WILL GET UGLY.

A map showing the forecast arrival time for tropical storm force winds in Hurricane Matthew on October 3, 2016. Image Credit: NOAA/NHC

Another new product being introduced this year by the National Hurricane Center is an arrival time map [PDF]. This forecast will show you when you can reasonably expect the damaging winds of a tropical storm or a hurricane to reach a certain point based on the storm’s current forecast track. This will help people and agencies gauge just how long they have to prepare for a storm before conditions deteriorate and venturing outside is too dangerous. However, these times are estimates—if the storm changes direction, speeds up, or slows down, the arrival times will change accordingly. Generally with storm systems, you can never be too prepared.

10 Rad Gifts for Hikers

Greg Rosenke/Unsplash
Greg Rosenke/Unsplash

The popularity of bird-watching, camping, and hiking has skyrocketed this year. Whether your gift recipients are weekend warriors or seasoned dirtbags, they'll appreciate these tools and gear for getting most out of their hiking experience.

1. Stanley Nesting Two-Cup Cookset; $14

Amazon

Stanley’s compact and lightweight cookset includes a 20-ounce stainless steel pot with a locking handle, a vented lid, and two insulated 10-ounce tumblers. It’s the perfect size for brewing hot coffee, rehydrating soup, or boiling water while out on the trail with a buddy. And as some hardcore backpackers note in their Amazon reviews, your favorite hiker can take the tumblers out and stuff the pot with a camp stove, matches, and other necessities to make good use of space in their pack.

Buy it: Amazon

2. Osprey Sirrus and Stratos 24-Liter Hiking Packs; $140

Amazon

Osprey’s packs are designed with trail-tested details to maximize comfort and ease of use. The Sirrus pack (pictured) is sized for women, while the Stratos fits men’s proportions. Both include an internal sleeve for a hydration reservoir, exterior mesh and hipbelt pockets, an attachment for carrying trekking poles, and a built-in rain cover.

Buy them: Amazon, Amazon

3. Yeti Rambler 18-Ounce Bottle; $48

Amazon

Nothing beats ice-cold water after a summer hike or a sip of hot tea during a winter walk. The Yeti Rambler can serve up both: Beverages can stay hot or cold for hours thanks to its insulated construction, and its steel body (in a variety of colors) is basically indestructible. It will add weight to your hiker's pack, though—for a lighter-weight, non-insulated option, the tried-and-true Camelbak Chute water bottle is incredibly sturdy and leakproof.

Buy it: Amazon

4. Mappinners Greatest 100 Hikes of the National Parks Scratch-Off Poster; $30

Amazon

The perfect gift for park baggers in your life (or yourself), this 16-inch-by-20-inch poster features epic hikes like Angel’s Landing in Zion National Park and Half Dome in Yosemite National Park. Once the hike is complete, you can scratch off the gold foil to reveal an illustration of the park.

Buy it: Amazon

5. National Geographic Adventure Edition Road Atlas; $19

Amazon

Hikers can use this brand-new, updated road atlas to plan their next adventure. In addition to comprehensive maps of all 50 states, Puerto Rico, Canada, and Mexico, they'll get National Geographic’s top 100 outdoor destinations, useful details about the most popular national parks, and points on the maps noting off-the-beaten-path places to explore.  

Buy it: Amazon

6. Adventure Medical Kits Hiker First-Aid Kit; $25

Amazon

This handy 67-piece kit is stuffed with all the things you hope your hiker will never need in the wilderness. Not only does it contain supplies for pain, cuts and scrapes, burns, and blisters (every hiker’s nemesis!), the items are organized clearly in the bag to make it easy to find tweezers or an alcohol wipe in an emergency.

Buy it: Amazon

7. Hiker Hunger Ultralight Trekking Poles; $70

Amazon

Trekking poles will help increase your hiker's balance and stability and reduce strain on their lower body by distributing it to their arms and shoulders. This pair is made of carbon fiber, a super-strong and lightweight material. From the sweat-absorbing cork handles to the selection of pole tips for different terrain, these poles answer every need on the trail. 

Buy it: Amazon

8. Leatherman Signal Camping Multitool; $120

Amazon

What can’t this multitool do? This gadget contains 19 hiking-friendly tools in a 4.5-inch package, including pliers, screwdrivers, bottle opener, saw, knife, hammer, wire cutter, and even an emergency whistle.

Buy it: Amazon

9. RAVPower Power Bank; $24

Amazon

Don’t let your hiker get caught off the grid with a dead phone. They can charge RAVPower’s compact power bank before they head out on the trail, and then use it to quickly juice up a phone or tablet when the batteries get low. Its 3-inch-by-5-inch profile won’t take up much room in a pack or purse.

Buy it: Amazon

10. Pack of Four Indestructible Field Books; $14

Amazon

Neither rain, nor snow, nor hail will be a match for these waterproof, tearproof 3.5-inch-by-5.5-inch notebooks. Your hiker can stick one in their pocket along with a regular pen or pencil to record details of their hike or brainstorm their next viral Tweet.

Buy it: Amazon

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5 Ways to Help Victims of the West Coast’s Wildfires

A wildfire near Shaver Lake, California, earlier this month.
A wildfire near Shaver Lake, California, earlier this month.
David McNew/Getty Images

Wildfires continue to ravage millions of acres across California, Oregon, and Washington, and strong winds forecasted in some of those regions could aggravate the blazes. To prevent future fires, we need to focus on combating climate change through policy reform and sustainable living. But for people directly affected by the fires, their current needs are much more urgent: food, shelter, and funds. Here are five organizations that can help you help victims.

1. Red Cross

The Red Cross has about 600 workers coordinating meal distribution, installing victims in shelters and hotels, and providing other support across Northern California. You can donate to the cause by choosing “Western Wildfires” under “I Want to Support” on the donation page here.

2. GoFundMe

GoFundMe’s affiliated nonprofit, GoFundMe.org, has created a Wildfire Relief Fund for this particular outbreak of fires on the West Coast. You can make a donation to the overall fund here, or you can explore the separate hubs in the description to find individual GoFundMe pages to give to.

3. Los Angeles Fire Department Foundation

Unfortunately, the city of Los Angeles doesn’t allocate enough public funds to the fire department to equip firefighters with all the important gear they need. The Los Angeles Fire Department Foundation tries to fill those demands by providing things like hydration backpacks, thermal-imaging cameras, brush-clearing tools, and more. You can donate to the general fund here, or choose a specific fire station from the dropdown menu.

4. VEMAnet

VEMAnet (Volunteers for the Emergency Management of Animals Network), is an offshoot of the Good Shepherd Foundation, which links animal owners who need emergency help with volunteers who can transport and/or house their animals—anything from cats to cattle—temporarily. You can post details about what animals you can accommodate here; and if you or someone you know needs help evacuating any pets, you can request help or browse available listings here.

5. California Fire Foundation

The California Fire Foundation’s Supplying Aid to Victims of Emergency (SAVE) program distributes $250 gift cards to wildfire victims, so they can decide for themselves what their most pressing needs are. You can donate here.