See the 17 States Where Deaths Outnumber Births, Mapped

Birth rates in the United States have been dropping as fewer people have children, which can have a major effect on whether a state's population grows or shrinks.

The fertility rate, or the number of children born to women of childbearing age, was 1.6 births per woman in 2024, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. That's the lowest fertility rate recorded in the U.S. and follows an international trend of women having fewer children. Meanwhile, the death rate has decreased in recent years but is still higher than its pre-pandemic level.

Fewer births and an increasingly older population can lead to an imbalance with more deaths than births in a state. For most of the 2010s, four states had a deficit between births and deaths. Now, it's 17 states. Is your state one of them?

Rust Belt Sees Big Declines

States in America's Rust Belt have seen some of the biggest declines with more deaths than births in their states. Pennsylvania leads all states with a natural population change—or the difference between births and deaths—of 10,708 people. Second-place West Virginia had a 7,887 difference, while fourth-place Michigan had a 4,998 difference. Another Rust Belt state, Ohio, ended up 13th on the list.

Southern states also had issues with more deaths than births. Mississippi and Alabama both saw more than 2,000 deaths that exceeded births, while Arkansas lost more than 1,200 from natural population change.

Florida also lost around 1,300 residents due to natural population change. Despite the fact that the state is known as a good place for older retirees, it has also benefited in recent years from new residents moving there and having children.

There are 17 states where deaths now outnumber births. They include:

1. Pennsylvania
2. West Virginia
3. Maine
4. Michigan
5. Oregon
6. Mississippi
7. Alabama
8. New Hampshire
9. New Mexico
10. Vermont
11. Florida
12. Arkansas
13. Ohio
14. Delaware
15. Rhode Island
16. Montana
17. Kentucky

Big States See Big Growth

It may not be surprising to see states with some of the highest populations also have the highest natural population change. Texas leads all states with 157,711 more births than deaths, followed by second-place California with a 109,715 increase in natural population. New York, home of New York City, came in third place with 42,815 in gains.

One issue that could be working in favor of some states is the median age of their residents, with younger residents more likely to have children and less likely to die. Texas, for example, boasts the nation's third-youngest median age at 35.6 years. On the other hand, Pennsylvania, which saw the largest decrease in natural population change, is in the top 10 oldest states with a median age of 40.9 years.

Net migration from state to state can also contribute to more births and fewer deaths if there's an increase in younger people moving to a state. From July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025, Texas had the second-highest domestic migration with a net of 67,000 people moving to the state. On the other side, Pennsylvania saw a net decrease of almost 3,000 residents.

The top 10 states that saw a net increase in natural population change include:

1. Texas
2. California
3. New York
4. Georgia
5. New Jersey
6. Utah
7. Arizona
8. Colorado
9. Washington
10. North Carolina

More State-By-State Data: