The States Expected to Have the Coldest and Rainiest Halloween in 2026, Mapped

Halloween weekend is fast approaching, but will it be the sort of Halloween that requires you to wear a giant bulky coat over your costume, or one that lets you show off your best efforts at embodying Pennywise or He-Man for the night? That, it turns out, depends on where you live.

On October 9, 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center shared its latest Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook, which projects likely temperatures in the weeks surrounding Halloweekend. It turns out that a lot of the country could experience an unseasonably warm Halloween, though the East Coast and parts of the midwest could see temperatures a bit closer to the nippy Halloweens that most adults remember.

Check out the maps below to see how your state might fare this Halloween.

The warmest and coolest states this Halloween

According to the NOAA’s projections, the western half of the country and parts of the midwest are overall more likely to experience higher-than-average temperatures this Halloween. So are Alaska and Hawaii. The southern half of the California coast has the highest chance of experiencing abnormally warm temperatures, along with certain sections of the northernmost edges of North Dakota and Montana.

Meanwhile, states on the East Coast, in Texas, and across the Ohio Valley this year have a better chance of experiencing something a bit more like the chilly Halloweens many of us experienced as children. (Remember when Halloweens could be snowy?)

Ultimately, though, none of these predictions are definitive. The map shows that most of the eastern U.S. has an equal chance of having warmer and cooler temperatures than usual, meaning the weather could really go either way. 

Which states will see rain on Halloween?

There’s one other weather-related factor that always puts a damper on Halloween nights: rain. This year, it’s possible that rain might force trick-or-treaters to incorporate umbrellas into their costumes, which would be a win for anyone dressed as Mary Poppins or Gene Kelly in Singin' in the Rain but not super on-brand for anyone else.

According to the NOAA, there’s a 90% chance that a strong El Niño will develop this winter, and sea surface temperatures were already 2.2 degrees Celsius above normal in early October. This could potentially lead to heavy rains in the southwestern U.S., including in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. The northeast and some of the northern U.S., meanwhile, are more likely to see a dry Halloween. Parts of Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, and all the states located further towards the northeast have the highest odds of a dry Halloween.

Of course, all of these are simply projections, and no one really knows exactly what the weather will look like on Halloween. We do know that global temperatures have risen around 2° F in total since 1850 due to climate change, and that the 10 warmest years ever recorded all occurred between 2015 and 2024.