Tornado Casualties Could Triple by the End of the Century

A recent study published in the journal Climatic Change found that the amount of death and destruction wrought by tornadoes in the United States could triple by the end of this century—and it’s in large part our own doing. Researchers at Villanova University studying tornado risk and population growth found that human activity will likely contribute to a rise in tornado-related damages and casualties in the coming decades.

The researchers’ findings are almost common sense: As the American population grows and people build homes farther away from urban centers, tornadoes will have more things to run into, putting more people at greater risk for danger during tornado outbreaks.

It’s already possible to see the effects of population growth in the aftermath of recent tornado outbreaks. Most tornadoes tear through open land, primarily damaging farm houses and agricultural equipment. Back when most of the population was either isolated in rural areas or concentrated in city centers, it took the incredible bad luck of a significant tornado directly hitting a city in order to cause a major disaster. But as the suburbs have wildly expanded in recent decades and we've built on more and more land, we’re exposing ourselves to a risk that our parents and grandparents didn’t necessarily have to face. Nowadays, a tornado can tear through a city’s suburbs and claim many lives and thousands of homes—homes that likely didn’t exist 50 years ago.

The researchers also accounted for the fact that the frequency of tornadoes might increase over the next nine decades, but found that this increase alone doesn’t account for additional tornado-related tragedies. Talking about future tornadoes, of course, also inevitably brings up the issue of climate change. While there is significant scientific consensus on many of the effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels and warmer temperatures, scientists still aren’t sure how climate change would affect the frequency or intensity of tornadoes in the future.

Tornadoes require wind shear in order to form. Winds changing speed and direction with height is what causes a thunderstorm’s updraft to begin rotating, which in turn can produce tornadoes. While a warmer atmosphere would foster more intense thunderstorm activity, a uniformly warm atmosphere would probably lessen the amount of wind shear that a thunderstorm could tap into—possibly causing the number of annual tornadoes to hold steady or even drop a bit.

But while climate change’s future effects on tornadoes remain to be seen, researchers have recently noted an uptick in the frequency of tornado outbreaks, or events with many tornadoes on a single day. All of which is to say: An increase in tornado outbreaks combined with an increase in population will likely make tornado tragedies more common in the future.

Denver's Temperature Dropped a Record 64 Degrees In 24 Hours

Leonid Ikan/iStock via Getty Images
Leonid Ikan/iStock via Getty Images

One sure sign summer is over: On Wednesday, residents of Denver, Colorado were experiencing a comfortable 82-degree day. Just before midnight, the temperature dropped to 29 degrees. Between Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, the Denver airport recorded a differential of 79 degrees down to 24 degrees. At one point on Wednesday, a staggering 45-degree drop was seen in the span of just three hours.

All told, a one-day span saw a 64-degree change in temperature, from a high of 83 to a low of 19, a record for the state in the month of October and just two degrees shy of matching Denver’s all-time record drop of 66 degrees on January 25, 1872. On that date, the temperature plummeted from 46 degrees to -20 degrees.

Back to 2019: Citizens tried their best to cope with the jarring transition in their environment, to mixed success. On Wednesday, the city’s Washington Park was full of joggers and shorts-wearing outdoor enthusiasts. Thursday, only the most devoted runners were out, bundled up against the frigid weather.

The cold snap also brought with it some freezing drizzle which prompted several vehicular accidents, including 200 reported during Thursday's morning commute. It’s expected to warm up some in the coming days, but residents shouldn't get too comfortable: Melting ice could lead to potholes.

[h/t KRDO]

Fall Foliage Is Running Late This Year

Free art director/iStock via Getty Images
Free art director/iStock via Getty Images

The August arrival of the pumpkin spice latte might have you feeling like fall is in full swing already, but plants aren’t quite so impressionable. According to Travel + Leisure, the best fall foliage could be coming a little later than usual this year.

Historically, the vibrant transformation starts to sweep through northern regions of the Rocky Mountains, Minnesota, and New England in mid-September, and reaches its peak by the end of the month. Other areas, including the Appalachians and Midwest states, don’t see the brightest autumn leaves until early or mid-October. The Weather Channel reports that this year, however, the forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts unseasonably warm temperatures for the next two weeks, which could impede the color-changing process.

Warm temperatures aren’t necessarily bad for fall foliage, as long as they occur during the day and are offset by cool nights. Since meteorologists don’t expect the overnight temperatures to drop off yet, plants will likely continue producing enough chlorophyll to keep their leaves green in the coming days.

The good news is that this year’s fall foliage should only be about a week late, and meteorologist David Epstein thinks that when leaves do start to change color, we’re in for an especially beautiful treat. If the current weather forecast holds, he told Boston.com, we'll "see a longer season than last year, we’d see a more vibrant season than last year, and it would come on a little earlier than last year, which was so late.”

Though poor weather conditions like early snow, heavy rain, drought, or strong winds can cause leaves to fall prematurely, most trees right now are in a good position to deliver a brilliant display of color after a healthy, rain-filled summer.

Find out when you’ll experience peak fall foliage in your area with this interactive map.

[h/t Travel + Leisure]

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